After COVID, another shock to the border

Five years after COVID-19 closed the U.S.-Canada border, steep new tariffs on cross-border trade and demoralizing political rhetoric have eroded one of the world’s closest international relationships.

Rising tariffs on Canadian goods in the U.S.—along with the U.S. president’s cracks about Canada becoming the “51st state”—have inspired Canadians to boycott U.S. imports. Meanwhile, harsher border and immigration controls make many Canadians wary of visiting the U.S., and Canadians who do come to the U.S. face tougher enforcement of duties and taxes on U.S. goods they bring home.

“I would guess that 98 percent of Americans have no idea how angry Canadians are over this,” says Edward Alden, Ross Distinguished Professor in the College of Business and Economics.

But U.S. businesses that rely on Canadians know. The first three weeks of March saw a 40 percent drop in southbound border traffic compared with the year before, says Laurie Trautman, director of the Border Policy Research Institute.

“A lot of it is still anecdotal, but the signs are all pointing in one direction, which is fewer Canadians, regardless of what happens with tariffs,” Trautman says. “I think it’s probably a trend we’re going to see for a while.”

Trautman thinks we can look to the COVID-19 pandemic for clues in navigating the current border crisis and focus on local and regional partnerships to “counter that federal narrative.” One example is the cross-border preparation for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, she says.

“Canada and the U.S. have a lot of institutional collaboration, and that work is still being done,” she says. “Working relationships are still strong. It’s important for people to realize that as bad as things feel, there are still connections there.”